Category: migration

What Europe means to me

To me the most important thing that the EU gives is the freedom for me and3d-map-europe my children to study, live and work anywhere in Europe. It’s about opportunity, especially for my children, to spread their wings and find a life in the wide variety that is Europe, and not be constrained to a life in just one country.  Some people say that won’t go, but I suspect it may become subject to wealth, age, skills or even lotteries. At the moment we can just do it. We need to keep that freedom.

The EU is also about us joining together, sharing, supporting and learning 10931440_10153273917146846_364837178071516664_nfrom each other. In short, it’s about being a community. For that reason I think the European flag instils in me a much greater loyalty than even the Union Jack. Our own flag hasn’t always been a symbol of good things. But the EU has been built simply on shared dreams and ambitions, not on invasion and intimidation.

But there are other things as well.Roblox Free Unlimited Robux and Tix

  • I worry that if we leave Europe it will send a message to people in other countries that could encourage them to seek their own referendums on EU membership. If others start to leave it could lead to the fragmentation of Europe. The EU and its predecessors have secured the peace in Europe for over 60 years. We should be very wary of destroying that structure and reeping all its unintended consequences.
  • I also worry about the economic implications of leaving. Some parts of Europe may want to show that we suffer as a result of leaving – to dissuade others from leaving – so they will block our trade negotiations. Furthermore, I don’t think we’ll be given access to the single market unless we sign up to all the rules, freedom of movement and annual ‘membership’ payments  (although this time without any level of representation). In time we might develop increased trade with other countries, but not to trade with your nearest neighbour is just bonkers.
  • There is also a high chance that leaving would trigger a second Scottish referendum with a SNP pledge to rejoin the EU. That might prove to be decisive. So leaving the EU could mean the end of the UK.
  • The so called bonfire of red tape which the Brexiters want could also see the end of lots of environmental controls – planning restrictions, habitat protection, water quality, air pollution – all those things could get worse outside the EU. The EU protects us from the extremes of our own governments – and that can only be a good thing.

And then there are the suprious issues that the Brexiters put out:

  • Migration is the swing issue this week prompting the polls to suggest that we will be voting to leave the EU.  Migration is global – it’s not just about the UK. Countries are either losing or gaining populations and the one factor that is facilitating that is the ease and low cost of travel. At the same time, people want to come to Britain because our economy is booming (at least relatively). So there is demand for their labour, and the wages are good. Closing the door and putting up a “No Immigrants” sign will not help our economy. Indeed the pressure for labour is likely to be so high that people will come in anyway. If we don’t we can only expect rising prices (to meet the dwindling supply of willing workers) and falls in productivity. So prices go up in the shops, and employment opportunities decline. That will not be good for our economic outlook and will not be good for ordinary working people.
  • Some people blame rising house prices and house building on migration.  But house prices have been out of control since the late 1980s. Not since the 1990s has the traditional formula of mortgage = 3 x salary been applicable. The driver is not competition from migrants but ease of credit. And as the credit crunch hit the rich cleaned up, accessing their own financial resources and making the most of marginally lower prices. And the need to build more houses comes not from demand from migrants, but the shrinking household size.  We live longer, we divorce, we leave home – we want a place of our own. And others want more than one place. Forecasts over the last 20 years have said that we have a crisis of housing supply – migration has only grown in the last 10 years.
  • The EU can be remote, not only geographically but also conceptually. We don’t often hear about it in positive terms – the media often spin a negative angle. But that is far from the ‘anti-democratic’ description that some people use. I don’t recognise that allegation at all. Indeed our own institutions and practices in the UK could equally be described as anti-democratic and taking power away from people.

For those reasons, I’ll be voting IN.  But if the vote on the 23rd is to leave Europe it will feel that something has been torn from me, something so important that I find it hard to describe it in words. I dread that day. I truly hope it never comes.

If the under 45s vote then we’ll remain in the EU

Interesting interview with Dr Michelle Harrison, Global Head of Public Affairs at Kantar on the Today programme this morning.

There is obvious confusion amongst much of the electorate.  People want facts – but what facts are there when the issues demand speculation about the future?

People understand the key issues but don’t know what they should believe. And with a background of distrust of politicians they don’t know who to believe either. In fact people don’t really see the relationship with the EU as an issue – it’s not high up on their agenda and is instead driven by Westminster not the electorate. So disengagement and confusion is not surprising.

37% of people in the UK think that the EU is working for them – marginally higher than in Germany (36%) and France (30%). And yet we have the referendum. So it’s something driven by the politicians, but they’re not trusted.  Hmm. Maybe that’s why people’s awareness (or ‘cut through’ in the jargon) of the campaigns is low.

On the theme of immigration and border control – 20% think it’s an issue but a similar percentage think it’s not an issue.  But it is an explosive issue. And an issue full of contradictions – people’s personal experience of immigrants (positive) is not the same as media coverage (negative).

Turnout is critical. Polls say there is a slight lead for remain. But that majority disappears amongst those likely to turnout. Over 45s are more likely to want to leave and they are also more likely to vote. It will come down to each of the campaign’s ability to get their vote out. If turnout of under 45s is low then the Remain camp’s lead in the polls is eroded.

Some people may believe that if we leave and then decide it’s not working then we can rejoin. But that may be another ‘join the back of the queue’ scenario. If we leave, someone in their 20s today might be in their late 40s by the time they get back into the EU with all its opportunities. That’s their early and formulative working life defined and gone.

Older people have benefitted from free higher education, house price inflation, secure employment and guaranteed pensions.  Meanwhile young people are paying for their education, they’re employed on temporary contracts, they can’t afford their own homes and their pensions are far from certain. The decision on 23 June could be yet another example of the old stuffing the young. The vote will affect young people for most of the 30+ years of their working lives while for older people this is mostly already over. Older people may carry the vote to leave, but young people will bear much more of the impact. The young only have one opportunity to avoid being stuffed again – turnout and vote on the 23rd.