Category: democracy

Might May Make It?

Theresa May faces a vote of no-confidence by Tory MPs this evening. 48 MPs signed a letter that triggered the vote, but there has to be a majority (158 votes will clinch it) to force her out. That is seeming unlikely given today’s  high level of condemnation of the Tory party self-indulgent infighting. If she wins she’s safe from any other confidence motion for a year.

If, however, she loses then there will be a leadership election and she will not be allowed to compete. There’s no timetable as yet for an election, but given that it has to include constituencies and Christmas is about to arrive, a decision before mid January seems unlikely. And then there’s the question of who to replace her? There’s no obvious contender given the appalling quality of the individuals in the Cabinet these days. Would they be from the Brexiteer right wing or from the Remainer centre / left of the party? Some are saying a Remainer would stand no chance in the face of UKIP entrants who now seem to dominate the Conservative Party. But if it was a Brexiter, what hope is there? The EC has said there is no chance of renegotiating the withdrawal agreement so the only option seems to be to crash out of the EU with all the damage and chaos that that entails – the Trumpian approach. Unless of course the opposition pulls something out of the bag and forces an election (very unlikely) or a second referendum (more possible, but no telling where it will take us).

In the likelihood that May wins this evening it may, depending on her majority, give her the strength to face down the hard exit right wing in her party and even seek more common ground with the remainers. Although the ERG will have the ability to vote against the withdrawal agreement as and when it comes back to the Commons she could seek to strike a ‘national interest’ alliance in the centre to counter-balance any ERG rebels.

What I hope is that she wins the confidence vote but the withdrawal agreement is voted down and that we then have a second referendum that results in a Remain win and the subsequent fall of the Conservative government. Labour then get elected (alone or in coalition) on a platform of EU reform, from within. Of course, the rest of Europe may not welcome us back given our appalling behaviour over the last 2-3 years so we’ll have to work hard at repairing bridges.

What I fear is that May will win the confidence vote but will somehow manage to bring the DUP and enough of the Tory right wing on board to get the withdrawal agreement passed. That will mean we leave the EU on 29 March, which will be a tragic day, just with less damage than the crash and burn exit. There’s no telling what sort of future relationship we will have with the EU, but we will have lost our citizenship and our freedom to live, work and study anywhere in Europe. That will be a huge loss that will impact on future generations for years and years to come.

What Europe means to me

To me the most important thing that the EU gives is the freedom for me and3d-map-europe my children to study, live and work anywhere in Europe. It’s about opportunity, especially for my children, to spread their wings and find a life in the wide variety that is Europe, and not be constrained to a life in just one country.  Some people say that won’t go, but I suspect it may become subject to wealth, age, skills or even lotteries. At the moment we can just do it. We need to keep that freedom.

The EU is also about us joining together, sharing, supporting and learning 10931440_10153273917146846_364837178071516664_nfrom each other. In short, it’s about being a community. For that reason I think the European flag instils in me a much greater loyalty than even the Union Jack. Our own flag hasn’t always been a symbol of good things. But the EU has been built simply on shared dreams and ambitions, not on invasion and intimidation.

But there are other things as well.Roblox Free Unlimited Robux and Tix

  • I worry that if we leave Europe it will send a message to people in other countries that could encourage them to seek their own referendums on EU membership. If others start to leave it could lead to the fragmentation of Europe. The EU and its predecessors have secured the peace in Europe for over 60 years. We should be very wary of destroying that structure and reeping all its unintended consequences.
  • I also worry about the economic implications of leaving. Some parts of Europe may want to show that we suffer as a result of leaving – to dissuade others from leaving – so they will block our trade negotiations. Furthermore, I don’t think we’ll be given access to the single market unless we sign up to all the rules, freedom of movement and annual ‘membership’ payments  (although this time without any level of representation). In time we might develop increased trade with other countries, but not to trade with your nearest neighbour is just bonkers.
  • There is also a high chance that leaving would trigger a second Scottish referendum with a SNP pledge to rejoin the EU. That might prove to be decisive. So leaving the EU could mean the end of the UK.
  • The so called bonfire of red tape which the Brexiters want could also see the end of lots of environmental controls – planning restrictions, habitat protection, water quality, air pollution – all those things could get worse outside the EU. The EU protects us from the extremes of our own governments – and that can only be a good thing.

And then there are the suprious issues that the Brexiters put out:

  • Migration is the swing issue this week prompting the polls to suggest that we will be voting to leave the EU.  Migration is global – it’s not just about the UK. Countries are either losing or gaining populations and the one factor that is facilitating that is the ease and low cost of travel. At the same time, people want to come to Britain because our economy is booming (at least relatively). So there is demand for their labour, and the wages are good. Closing the door and putting up a “No Immigrants” sign will not help our economy. Indeed the pressure for labour is likely to be so high that people will come in anyway. If we don’t we can only expect rising prices (to meet the dwindling supply of willing workers) and falls in productivity. So prices go up in the shops, and employment opportunities decline. That will not be good for our economic outlook and will not be good for ordinary working people.
  • Some people blame rising house prices and house building on migration.  But house prices have been out of control since the late 1980s. Not since the 1990s has the traditional formula of mortgage = 3 x salary been applicable. The driver is not competition from migrants but ease of credit. And as the credit crunch hit the rich cleaned up, accessing their own financial resources and making the most of marginally lower prices. And the need to build more houses comes not from demand from migrants, but the shrinking household size.  We live longer, we divorce, we leave home – we want a place of our own. And others want more than one place. Forecasts over the last 20 years have said that we have a crisis of housing supply – migration has only grown in the last 10 years.
  • The EU can be remote, not only geographically but also conceptually. We don’t often hear about it in positive terms – the media often spin a negative angle. But that is far from the ‘anti-democratic’ description that some people use. I don’t recognise that allegation at all. Indeed our own institutions and practices in the UK could equally be described as anti-democratic and taking power away from people.

For those reasons, I’ll be voting IN.  But if the vote on the 23rd is to leave Europe it will feel that something has been torn from me, something so important that I find it hard to describe it in words. I dread that day. I truly hope it never comes.