Interesting interview with Dr Michelle Harrison, Global Head of Public Affairs at Kantar on the Today programme this morning.
There is obvious confusion amongst much of the electorate. People want facts – but what facts are there when the issues demand speculation about the future?
People understand the key issues but don’t know what they should believe. And with a background of distrust of politicians they don’t know who to believe either. In fact people don’t really see the relationship with the EU as an issue – it’s not high up on their agenda and is instead driven by Westminster not the electorate. So disengagement and confusion is not surprising.
37% of people in the UK think that the EU is working for them – marginally higher than in Germany (36%) and France (30%). And yet we have the referendum. So it’s something driven by the politicians, but they’re not trusted. Hmm. Maybe that’s why people’s awareness (or ‘cut through’ in the jargon) of the campaigns is low.
On the theme of immigration and border control – 20% think it’s an issue but a similar percentage think it’s not an issue. But it is an explosive issue. And an issue full of contradictions – people’s personal experience of immigrants (positive) is not the same as media coverage (negative).
Turnout is critical. Polls say there is a slight lead for remain. But that majority disappears amongst those likely to turnout. Over 45s are more likely to want to leave and they are also more likely to vote. It will come down to each of the campaign’s ability to get their vote out. If turnout of under 45s is low then the Remain camp’s lead in the polls is eroded.
Some people may believe that if we leave and then decide it’s not working then we can rejoin. But that may be another ‘join the back of the queue’ scenario. If we leave, someone in their 20s today might be in their late 40s by the time they get back into the EU with all its opportunities. That’s their early and formulative working life defined and gone.
Older people have benefitted from free higher education, house price inflation, secure employment and guaranteed pensions. Meanwhile young people are paying for their education, they’re employed on temporary contracts, they can’t afford their own homes and their pensions are far from certain. The decision on 23 June could be yet another example of the old stuffing the young. The vote will affect young people for most of the 30+ years of their working lives while for older people this is mostly already over. Older people may carry the vote to leave, but young people will bear much more of the impact. The young only have one opportunity to avoid being stuffed again – turnout and vote on the 23rd.